TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether either team's defensive or special teams unit scores at least one touchdown during an upcoming football game between San Francisco and Atlanta. The outcome depends on game statistics, with specific rules for player participation and penalties.
Both markets share comprehensive protection and settlement rules for player participation. A contract is designated as protected, meaning if the relevant player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime—including overtime—they resolve at the pre-game fair price unless they meet the touchdown requirement, in which case actual statistics apply. If the player participates in any play after halftime, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, nor does merely lining up for a penalized play without subsequent participation. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection applies only to full-game contracts with 'at least' payout criteria and includes overtime statistics. Passing touchdowns do not count toward the passer’s total, and team defense/special-teams selections settle purely on actual touchdowns without player participation exceptions. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring profit regardless of the outcome. This market, however, represents the collective wisdom of traders and aims to reflect the true probability of events. While sportsbook odds often start with a strong bias based on initial perceptions, this market can adjust more rapidly to new information and changing sentiment. It’s common to see differences emerge as new data becomes available, with this market potentially offering more favorable odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand – if more people believe a particular outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official number of touchdowns scored in the San Francisco versus Atlanta game, as reported by official league sources. The final market price will reflect the accuracy of the collective prediction made by traders on Kalshi. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on publicly available and verifiable data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the San Francisco or Atlanta teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting passing or running games, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced leading up to the game could further impact predictions. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could also drive changes in this market.