TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of key players in a specific football game, focusing on how many rushing yards they accumulate. Participants can bet on whether the players will meet certain yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for dynamic returns tied directly to game statistics.
The event features two parallel scalar markets evaluating rushing yard performance by designated players in a single Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market operates under identical mechanics: Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards), while No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning holders of Yes contracts receive increasing returns as yardage increases, whereas No contract holders receive decreasing returns. Examples illustrate proportional payouts—80 yards yield $0.20 Yes / $0.80 No, 200 yards yield $0.50 Yes / $0.50 No, and zero yards yield $0.00 Yes / $1.00 No. The structure ensures that total payouts for each contract type sum to $1.00, reflecting a zero-sum outcome based purely on the player’s rushing yardage in the specified game. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NFL, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by professionals. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or attempt to capitalize on public perception, whereas this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see prediction market prices move closer to the true outcome as more information becomes available and trading volume increases, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional betting odds. However, discrepancies can persist due to differing risk appetites and market dynamics.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard statistics from the San Francisco versus Atlanta game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts payout, based on the pre-defined yardage ladders. The official NFL statistics serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts in this market, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game plan. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching strategies, or even defensive matchups could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can shift the market, especially as the game draws closer and more information becomes available.