TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:51 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess the likelihood of Brock Purdy achieving various passing touchdown milestones in the same football match between San Francisco and Atlanta. The resolution hinges on the exact count of touchdowns Purdy throws from the outset of the game.
These markets resolve based on whether Brock Purdy records a specified number of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, or 5+) in the San Francisco vs Atlanta Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If Purdy achieves the threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The secondary rule states that if Purdy is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Purdy takes at least one snap—even if nullified by penalty—the market settles based on the passing touchdowns recorded. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League; all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set lines to encourage balanced betting, while this market is driven purely by individuals expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as this market dynamically adjusts to new data and insights. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, reflecting the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current top outcome is unavailable, and the chance percentage is also unavailable at this time.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by each team in the game will be used to determine the winning contract. This market will settle based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. It's important to monitor the game and any potential challenges to the official data as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries, particularly to quarterbacks or wide receivers, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could lead to traders reassessing their probabilities. Public sentiment and expert analysis, while not directly reflected in the market, can also indirectly influence trading activity.