TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between San Francisco and Atlanta. It focuses on whether each quarterback exceeds certain thresholds of pass attempts during the match. The outcomes depend purely on the in-game performance statistics of these players.
The event evaluates multiple markets centered around passing attempts by two quarterbacks, Michael Penix Jr. and Brock Purdy, in the San Francisco vs Atlanta Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold for passing attempts (27+, 32+, 37+ for Penix Jr., and 26+, 31+, 36+ for Purdy), resolving to Yes if the respective player meets or exceeds their threshold. A consistent secondary rule applies across all markets: if a quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules ensure clarity in settlement regardless of a player's in-game status or unusual play outcomes, while emphasizing that Kalshi is not officially connected with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, and risk assessments. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The closer we get to the game, the more active trading typically becomes, and the prices will likely converge as more information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing attempts from the San Francisco versus Atlanta game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be determined by the official game statistics provided by the NFL, and the market will settle to the contract corresponding to the actual total passing attempts made during the game. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Injury reports for key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would be significant, as they directly impact the expected passing volume. Weather forecasts also play a role, with adverse conditions potentially leading to a more run-heavy offensive strategy. Changes in coaching decisions or offensive schemes could also shift expectations. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive strategies could trigger movement in this market as traders adjust their forecasts.