TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either San Francisco or Atlanta during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between San Francisco and Atlanta exclusively during the second quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For markets specifying San Francisco's victory, the outcome is 'Yes' if San Francisco outscores Atlanta by more than the stated margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, 2.5, or 1.5 points). For markets specifying Atlanta's victory, the outcome is 'Yes' if Atlanta outscores San Francisco by more than the stated margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). Only points scored during the second quarter count toward resolving these markets, meaning any scoring occurring in other quarters is irrelevant. The markets are independent, allowing for multiple 'Yes' resolutions depending on the exact point differential achieved in that quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast of events than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of many individuals. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven purely by what traders believe will happen. However, there can be discrepancies, especially early on, as sportsbooks react to news and public betting patterns. It's common to see the market and sportsbook odds converge as the event approaches, with this market often becoming a leading indicator of the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting San Francisco will win by more than the spread, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, providing a real-time assessment of the game's likely result based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the second quarter spread in the San Francisco versus Atlanta game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by the NFL. The market will determine whether San Francisco won the second quarter by more than the specified spread, and payouts will be calculated accordingly based on the final price of the contracts held by traders.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key offensive players, would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather conditions, especially if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also shift the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public opinion or expert analysis regarding the game's likely outcome could drive trading activity and alter prices.