TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses exclusively on the second half performance of a football game between two teams, evaluating whether one team can achieve a specified point differential advantage over the other during that period.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential between San Francisco and Atlanta during the second half (including overtime) of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with outcomes determined by whether the winning team exceeds that threshold. Only points scored in the second half count toward the resolution, meaning any scoring from the first half is irrelevant. The markets cover a range of thresholds for both possible winners, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance in the latter portion of the game.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the knowledge and insights of a diverse group of traders. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market incorporates real-time information and adjusts dynamically to news and sentiment. However, it’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, especially before significant trading volume builds. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the second-half spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its forecast accordingly, making it a valuable tool for understanding the collective expectations of informed traders.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official second-half point spread of the San Francisco versus Atlanta game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official result as determined by the NFL. No further action is required from traders after the game concludes; the platform will automatically settle contracts based on the verified result. The market’s outcome will reflect whether the actual spread falls above or below the contract price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either team, changes in weather forecasts impacting the game, or significant shifts in public perception regarding team performance could all drive trading activity. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Furthermore, any late-breaking information regarding player availability or game-day conditions will likely be quickly reflected in the price of contracts on Kalshi.