TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team’s defensive special teams unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game. It includes scenarios where either team's defense scores first, or no touchdown is scored by any player during the game.
The market determines whether the first touchdown in the specified San Francisco vs Atlanta professional football game will be scored by the Atlanta Falcons defensive/special teams unit, the San Francisco 49ers defensive/special teams unit, or if no touchdown will be scored at all. If either defensive/special teams unit scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If neither unit scores a touchdown and the game concludes without any touchdowns, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. If a defensive/special teams unit is active but does not take a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once a snap occurs, settlement is based on actual touchdowns scored, excluding those from fake punts or offensive field goals. All markets are independent and resolve based strictly on the occurrence or non-occurrence of a qualifying touchdown by the specified units.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs, leading to a potentially more accurate assessment of probabilities as new information emerges. While sportsbooks may react slowly to news, the prediction market can adjust rapidly based on the collective intelligence of its participants. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each player. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that player scoring the first touchdown, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a particular player, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, providing insight into potential trading opportunities.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, following the conclusion of the game between San Francisco and Atlanta. The outcome will be determined by identifying which player officially scored the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting from official game sources. The official game statistics will be the final authority in determining the winner of this market. Any scoring plays subject to review will be resolved based on the final ruling by the game officials. The resolution will be clearly indicated on Kalshi once confirmed.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also influence the market. Pre-game reports about coaching strategies or potential mismatches could also lead to price movements. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding player availability or changes in the lineup will be closely watched by traders and could cause rapid adjustments to the probabilities reflected in this market.