TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. The outcomes depend entirely on the final score of the contest between the two teams.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential from the San Diego vs Butler college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. If San Diego wins, markets will resolve to Yes if the victory margin exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 1.5 to 28.5 points). Conversely, if Butler wins, markets resolve to Yes if their margin surpasses set thresholds (from 3.5 to 19.5 points). Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this window, all markets settle at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty created by the delay.
Generally, prediction markets tend to reflect information and opinions beyond what’s captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, whereas this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. While there can be alignment, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of data, including news, injuries, and even subtle signals that might not be immediately reflected in sportsbook lines. It's common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available, and this market can sometimes provide a more accurate forecast.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the San Diego vs Butler game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what the collective wisdom of traders believes is the most likely outcome, and this price fluctuates constantly as new information and opinions emerge.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the San Diego vs Butler game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college basketball. The contract corresponding to the correct point spread will pay out $100, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the game’s final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence the San Diego vs Butler spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either team would likely cause a shift in the odds. Unexpected coaching changes, significant changes in team performance during recent games, or even weather forecasts (if the game is outdoors) could also play a role. Public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and expert analysis, can also impact trading activity. Major upsets in other related games could also influence traders’ perceptions and move this market.