TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:32 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the final quarter performance of a college football game between San Diego State and Oregon State, specifically measuring the point differential in the fourth quarter alone. Outcomes depend solely on which team secures a lead by a certain margin during this period, without considering the overall game score.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the fourth quarter of play (excluding overtime) in the San Diego State vs Oregon State college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market has a different threshold for the point differential required for resolution, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, with separate markets for wins by either San Diego State or Oregon State. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the official result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. All markets are independent and evaluated solely on fourth-quarter performance, disregarding any points scored in earlier quarters or overtime periods.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own beliefs. Often, prediction markets are seen as highly accurate forecasts, sometimes even more so than traditional sources. However, it's important to remember that both offer different perspectives, and discrepancies can arise due to varying information and biases influencing each.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the fourth quarter of the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts dynamically, offering a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fourth-quarter spread of the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the relevant sporting authorities. The final spread will be compared to the contracts traded on Kalshi to determine payouts to contract holders. It’s important to monitor official sources for the confirmed result as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in earlier games leading up to the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. matchup could also shift expectations. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could indicate a change in perceived probability, causing the price to move. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market.