TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of the first half in an upcoming college football game between San Diego State and Oregon State. It focuses solely on which team leads at halftime, or if the half ends in a tie, without considering the full game result. The resolution depends only on the points scored during the first two quarters of play.
The market resolves based on which team leads at the end of the first half of the designated college football game, or if the half ends in a tie. Only points scored during the first half are considered for resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price. The outcome is determined exclusively by the first-half performance, with no regard to the final game result.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that prediction market traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. first half. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific team, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in their victory. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adapt to new information and changing perceptions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The team leading at the end of the first half of the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. game will be declared the winner of this market. Resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the San Diego St. or Oregon St. teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or internal conflicts could affect trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to movement in this market.