TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on whether the outcome will exceed that threshold.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the designated college football game. If Oregon State achieves a winning margin exceeding the specified threshold in any of the markets listed from Rule 1 to Rule 12, that respective market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if San Diego State secures a winning margin surpassing the thresholds outlined in Rules 13 to Rule 21, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original schedule, all open markets will resolve according to the actual first-half result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all affected markets will instead resolve to a fair price, reflecting an equitable settlement rather than a definitive win or loss.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by individuals making their own predictions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information and viewpoints not fully captured by sportsbooks. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into public perception and potential value opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring in the first half of the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. game, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate, the market price tends to converge towards a more accurate representation of the true probability.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half spread of the San Diego St. vs Oregon St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final official result reported by the governing body of college football. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the first-half spread, based on the contract price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding injuries to key players on either the San Diego St. or Oregon St. teams would likely cause movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to heavily impact the game, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might influence traders’ predictions and therefore, the price of contracts in this market.