TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between San Antonio and Orange County, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in a USL Championship soccer match between San Antonio and Orange County scheduled for October 24, 2026. Resolution occurs based on regular time results only—90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: San Antonio winning by more than 2.5 goals, San Antonio winning by more than 1.5 goals, Orange County winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Orange County winning by more than 2.5 goals. Whichever condition is met first determines the market outcome. The event explicitly states that the platform operating the market has no official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can arise from varying levels of information access, biases, or simply differing interpretations of the same data. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the San Antonio vs Orange County game, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe San Antonio will win by a certain margin, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, prices will fall.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the San Antonio vs Orange County game. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches a contract’s spread, and to 0 if it does not. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective outcome.
Several factors could influence the San Antonio vs Orange County spread between now and Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in team performance, coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or changes in the game location could also lead to fluctuations. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, could also contribute to price adjustments in this market.