TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between San Antonio and New Mexico United, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between San Antonio and New Mexico United in their USL Championship game scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if San Antonio wins by more than 2.5 goals, San Antonio wins by more than 1.5 goals, New Mexico United wins by more than 1.5 goals, or New Mexico United wins by more than 2.5 goals. All outcomes are determined solely by regular time scoring; extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market is driven by a larger, more fluid group. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can be valuable, as prediction markets sometimes anticipate outcomes more accurately than traditional methods, though this is not always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. Essentially, the market 'discovers' the probability of each outcome based on supply and demand for these contracts. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome happens.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the San Antonio vs New Mexico United match, as determined by official sources, will be used to determine which contracts payout. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution. It’s important to monitor official results following the match to understand the final settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather conditions impacting the match could cause significant shifts. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or coaching changes could also move the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants can also influence prices, as can general shifts in public sentiment regarding the teams' chances of success. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential market movements.