TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between San Antonio and New Mexico United, focusing on the result after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The markets will determine whether San Antonio wins, New Mexico United wins, or the game ends in a tie. The resolution depends solely on the final score within regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the San Antonio vs New Mexico United professional USL Championship soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win for either team resolves the respective market to Yes, while a tie resolves the Tie market to Yes. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The outcome is strictly determined by the score at the end of regular time, with no consideration given to post-match proceedings or adjustments.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective intelligence of traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Kalshi will shift to reflect that belief. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply a larger and more diverse group of participants contributing to the prediction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities, driven entirely by supply and demand from individuals trading on the exchange.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the San Antonio vs New Mexico United match will be used to determine the winning contract. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift expectations. Strong performance by either team in preceding matches, or significant tactical adjustments announced by the coaches, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, public sentiment and media coverage surrounding the match can contribute to price movements, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions accordingly.