TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 11:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Missouri State will win their college football game against Sam Houston by more than 5.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 96.0% probability to Missouri State winning by over 5.5 points. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Sam Houston vs Missouri State game originally scheduled for October 27, 2026, as reported by the game’s official results. Keep an eye on the game’s final score, as the market will be settled based on the point differential following the conclusion of the game on or around the resolution date of 2026-10-28.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential from the Sam Houston vs Missouri State college football game scheduled for October 27, 2026. If Missouri State wins, markets requiring a win by more than a specified number of points resolve to Yes if the margin exceeds that threshold; otherwise, they resolve to No. Conversely, if Sam Houston wins, markets requiring a win by more than a specified number of points resolve to Yes if Sam Houston's margin exceeds that threshold; otherwise, they resolve to No. For any game postponement, if the game commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks may incorporate factors not immediately priced into the prediction market. Over time, the market tends to converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and more traders participate. However, differences can persist due to varying levels of information and analytical approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Sam Houston vs Missouri St. game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a market-driven price that aggregates the beliefs of all participants. The current price reflects the collective expectation of the spread’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be determined by the actual point spread of the Sam Houston vs Missouri St. game, as reported by official sources. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches a contract’s spread, and to 0 if it does not. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 28, 2026. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Sam Houston or Missouri St. teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team’s style of play, could also move the market. Public perception shifts, driven by expert analysis or media coverage, can also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any large-volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and cause price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential market movements.