TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Liberty will win their college football game against Sam Houston by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Liberty winning by over 1.5 points, with resolution determined by the final score of the Sam Houston vs Liberty game originally scheduled for October 8, 2026. Participants can trade on their beliefs about the game’s outcome up until the estimated resolution date of 2026-10-09, which represents the day after the scheduled game and allows time to confirm the final result.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Sam Houston vs Liberty college football game scheduled for October 8, 2026. If Liberty wins by the exact point margin specified in a market's title, the market resolves as 'No.' For markets titled 'Liberty wins by over X points,' a Liberty victory by more than the stated points resolves 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves 'No.' Conversely, markets titled 'Sam Houston wins by over X points' resolve 'Yes' only if Sam Houston wins by more than the stated points. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own beliefs. This often leads to prediction markets being more accurate, especially as the event approaches, as more information becomes available and is incorporated into the price. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly early on, before significant volume builds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the Sam Houston vs Liberty game.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Sam Houston vs Liberty game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the competition. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual outcome of the game. It’s important to monitor news sources for the official result as it approaches the resolution date.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Sam Houston or Liberty teams would likely cause a shift in the spread. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts, or even significant public betting patterns could also influence the price. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also move the market. As the game day approaches, any updates related to player availability or team performance will be closely watched by traders.