TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:32 AM EST
Kalshi
Another pair of Austrian Bundesliga contests will conclude with one of three possible results decided solely by the regulation-time score. Outcomes are determined without considering overtime or penalty shootouts.
Similar to the first event, these markets resolve according to the match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not including extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome applies when the specified team secures a victory. Should the match conclude equally, the 'Tie' market resolves positively. Markets are subject to fair-price resolution if the game is cancelled or postponed beyond 48 hours from its scheduled time. Kalshi emphasizes no official connection with the league governance, and all branding belongs to respective owners.
Currently, it’s useful to compare the implied probabilities from this market with external forecasts from sports analysts and betting polls. If analysts widely predict a win for one team, but this market shows a more even distribution of probability, it might indicate a disagreement between expert opinion and the wisdom of the crowd. Conversely, if the market aligns closely with analyst predictions, it suggests a consensus view. Remember that prediction markets reflect the collective judgment of traders, which may differ from individual expert opinions or poll results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and the implied probability of that outcome rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price movements, and traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the event's outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Austrian Bundesliga match between Salzburg and SCR Altach. The platform will verify the final score and declare a winning outcome based on this result. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the price of the contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Salzburg or SCR Altach could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, significant bets placed by large traders on Kalshi could cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the teams involved is crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market’s probabilities.