TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 11:35 PM EST
Kalshi
Two Major League Soccer teams will compete in a match where bettors can wager on whether the combined goals exceed various thresholds. The outcome depends entirely on the final score after regulation time, excluding any extra periods or penalty kicks.
All markets resolve based on the total goals scored by both teams combined in the Salt Lake vs San Jose professional MLS soccer game scheduled for Oct 14, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from goal counts. Each market has a specific threshold: over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals. If the total goals exceed the threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that attract balanced betting, ensuring a profit margin, while prediction market participants are incentivized to express their true beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets incorporating information more quickly and efficiently, potentially offering a more accurate reflection of the event’s probability. It's common to see discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from the sportsbook's initial assessment of this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders on the platform. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total goals scored in the Salt Lake vs San Jose match will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will reflect the official result as reported by the governing body of the league, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final, verified goal total.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Salt Lake or San Jose would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also affect trading activity. Additionally, pre-match analysis from sports analysts and any shifts in public sentiment regarding the teams’ expected performance could drive price fluctuations in this market.