TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 6:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will win their professional Concacaf Nations League soccer game against Sint Maarten after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, Kalshi gives Saint Vincent and the Grenadines a 99.0% probability of winning, while Sint Maarten is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game as reported by official sources. Keep an eye on the result of the match itself, as the market will resolve following the completion of the game originally scheduled for October 6, 2026, with final resolution expected by October 7, 2026.
The event resolves based on the official result of the Saint Vincent and the Grenadines vs Sint Maarten professional Concacaf Nations League soccer match scheduled for October 6, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, a win for Sint Maarten, or a tie. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price, ensuring that participants are compensated equitably under such circumstances. The resolution strictly adheres to the result determined within regular time, with no consideration given to post-match events such as extra time or penalty shootouts.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks due to the differing incentives of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate relevant news and insights than traditional sportsbooks, potentially offering a more refined probability assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if their predicted outcome is correct, and it's a dynamic representation of overall market sentiment regarding the Saint Vincent vs Sint Maarten match.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Saint Vincent vs Sint Maarten match, as reported by recognized sporting authorities. The platform will then determine the winning contract and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result, as this will be the basis for settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Additionally, updates on team performance in preceding matches or any controversies surrounding the event could also play a role. Unexpected announcements or significant shifts in public perception regarding either team's chances of winning are likely to cause fluctuations in the market prices.