TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 10:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Saint Louis and Vancouver, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different threshold values for determining a decisive win. The result is based solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates whether either Saint Louis or Vancouver achieves a victory margin exceeding specified goal differences in their MLS match scheduled for October 14, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: Saint Louis winning by more than 2.5 goals, Saint Louis winning by more than 1.5 goals, Vancouver winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Vancouver winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions depend exclusively on the score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, using publicly available match results as the sole determinant of outcomes.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Saint Louis vs Vancouver game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective prediction. The current price indicates how much it costs to take one side of the bet – essentially, the market’s forecast for the final spread.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Saint Louis vs Vancouver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the governing body of the game. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the spread, based on the contract price at resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 15, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather forecasts could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups, or reports of internal team issues, can also lead to price movements. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also play a role, as traders react to changing expectations about the Saint Louis vs Vancouver game’s outcome.