TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional MLS soccer match between Saint Louis and Portland, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The match outcome is determined after the standard 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Saint Louis versus Portland MLS soccer match scheduled for October 28, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered, each tied to a specific goal differential requirement for either team. If Saint Louis wins by more than 2.5 goals, that market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Saint Louis wins by more than 1.5 goals, that specific market resolves positively. For Portland, winning by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals each correspond to their respective markets resolving to Yes. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded from consideration. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a relatively small number of professionals, while this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when there’s considerable uncertainty surrounding the game. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the probability that the actual spread will fall within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The current price represents the market's consensus expectation for the Saint Louis vs Portland spread, and is constantly updated as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Saint Louis vs Portland game, as determined by official sports statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those predicting a spread that matches the actual result of the game. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Saint Louis or Portland teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, or shifts in public perception based on expert analysis, are all potential catalysts that could shift the odds and trading volume in this market.