TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 11:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Sacramento Republic and Tulsa, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled according to specific goal-difference thresholds for each team.
The event resolves based on the final score of the Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa professional USL Championship soccer match scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcome scenarios are evaluated: Sacramento Republic winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sacramento Republic winning by more than 1.5 goals, Tulsa winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Tulsa winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The governing rules emphasize that the match result must be determined within regular time, and Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league. All trademarks and brand names remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market allows participants to openly trade based on their own analysis and information. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or changes in team dynamics than traditional sportsbooks, potentially offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the potential results of the Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa match.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa match, specifically the spread. The official result will be used to determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi once the event is officially concluded and verified.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could shift the odds. Weather conditions on match day, particularly if they are significantly different than anticipated, could also play a role. Additionally, public sentiment and media coverage surrounding the teams and their recent performance can impact trading activity and, consequently, the market prices. Major upsets in other related matches could also indirectly affect how traders assess the probabilities in this market.