TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 1:02 AM EST
Polymarket
This group covers multiple markets related to the October 29th NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Anaheim Ducks. Markets include a winner-takes-all prediction and over/under goals predictions for various thresholds. All markets share a common resolution condition regarding game postponements and cancellations.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 29 at 10:00PM ET: If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for October 29 at 10:00PM ET: If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and profit, while prediction markets incentivize participants to express their true beliefs. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities, especially as new information emerges. However, arbitrage opportunities may exist if significant discrepancies arise between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, allowing traders to profit from the misalignment. The current volume on this market suggests strong interest from informed traders.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict for the Sabres vs. Ducks game can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base, with differing risk tolerances and information access, leading to varied interpretations of the event's likely outcome. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can amplify price movements. Furthermore, the specific markets offered on each platform – such as over/under totals on Polymarket versus outright winner predictions on Predict – inherently attract different types of traders and influence price discovery. These dynamics contribute to the observed differences in pricing.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching decisions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected performance in prior games, or even weather conditions on game day, might also impact trading activity. Major shifts in public sentiment, reflected in media coverage or social media trends, can also drive price movements. Keep an eye on these signals, as they could present opportunities to capitalize on changing probabilities in this market.