TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 2:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Dortmund will win a Champions League soccer match against Sabah Masazir. Currently, Kalshi gives Dortmund a 79.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 15.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match originally scheduled for October 20, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the Sabah Masazir vs Dortmund game. Keep a close watch on the kickoff of the match on October 20, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for resolution.
The event determines the winner of the Sabah Masazir vs Dortmund professional Champions League soccer match scheduled for October 20, 2026, based solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Sabah Masazir wins within this timeframe, the 'Sabah Masazir' market resolves to Yes. If Dortmund wins, the 'Dortmund' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price as per the event rules. The outcome is strictly based on the match result in regular time, with no consideration for post-match proceedings such as extra time or penalty shootouts.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer insights into public perception versus professional analysis, and may reveal potential value in either market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand increasing prices and lower demand decreasing them. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result of the Sabah Masazir vs Dortmund match will be used to determine the winning contract. Resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the competition, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the availability of key players for either Sabah Masazir or Dortmund would likely cause price fluctuations. Additionally, major upsets in other related matches or changes in weather conditions could also impact trading activity. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in market sentiment and adjust your positions accordingly.