TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:40 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Rwanda and Kenya, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Rwanda vs. Kenya match originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Rwanda and Kenya, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Rwanda vs. Kenya match originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, incorporating a margin for themselves. This market, however, is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome of the Rwanda vs. Kenya match. While sportsbooks may initially be influenced by expert analysis, prediction markets can quickly adapt to new information and potentially offer more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when public sentiment diverges from expert opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different exact scores in the Rwanda vs. Kenya match, and the price of each share reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a constant product market maker model, meaning the product of the shares available for each outcome remains constant, influencing price movements based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and insights.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Rwanda vs. Kenya match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact score at the end of regulation time will be used to determine the winning share(s). Any extra time or penalty shootouts will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the match, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either the Rwanda or Kenya team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also affect traders’ perceptions. Major upsets in other related matches, or even broader shifts in public sentiment regarding the teams’ capabilities, could also drive price movements. Unexpected announcements related to the match itself, such as venue changes or referee assignments, could also cause volatility.