TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Rwanda vs. Kenya
polymarket
predict
kalshi

What is the result of Rwanda vs. Kenya?

Volume:
$687,722

Tie

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 2:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$199,535
N/A
N/A
$96,491
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Rwanda vs. Kenya)

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,628
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Draw

View
99%
69%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$14,980
$3,277
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

KEN

View
1%
32%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$147
$4,546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kenya

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$152,433
N/A
N/A
$82,090
Settled
No
polymarket

Kenya

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

RWA

View
1%
37%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$151
$6,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Rwanda

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$262,413
N/A
N/A
$139,826
Settled
No
polymarket

Rwanda

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of a draw in the FIFA International Friendly soccer match between Rwanda and Kenya. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi indicates a 100.0% probability that the game will end in a draw. Resolution will be based on the official result reported by https://www.fifa.com. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for October 5, 2026, as the final outcome will determine market settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly resolves 'No' on complete cancellation, while Kalshi's logic doesn't address this scenario, potentially implying resolution based on a rescheduled game.Hero tip: Be aware that Polymarket markets will likely resolve to 'No' if the game is canceled outright, whereas Kalshi markets may remain open or resolve based on a future result if the game is rescheduled.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source is official statistics, with fallback to Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit mention of cancellation handling. Implies a result is expected, even if delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Monday, October 5, 2026 between Rwanda and Kenya.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the result of the Rwanda vs Kenya professional international friendly soccer match originally scheduled for October 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Rwanda or Kenya occurs if that respective team wins the match within this timeframe. If the match ends in a tie after the same period, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The markets exclusively consider regulation time results and do not account for extra time or penalty shootout outcomes.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Monday, October 5, 2026 between Rwanda and Kenya.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those available for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit, while prediction markets aggregate individual predictions. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from sportsbook expectations. Both offer ways to assess the likelihood of various outcomes in the Rwanda vs. Kenya match, but the underlying mechanisms and information sources differ, potentially resulting in varying probabilities.

Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Different risk appetites among traders on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific question wording on each platform, even if addressing the same underlying event, can lead to differing interpretations and, therefore, different probabilities assigned by traders. The volume of trading on each platform also plays a role, with higher volume generally leading to more efficient price discovery.