TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 4:32 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins the final quarter of a college football matchup, focusing solely on points scored in that period. Outcomes depend entirely on the margin of victory during the fourth quarter, ignoring earlier game events or overtime scenarios.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Rutgers vs Maryland college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds that margin in the fourth quarter alone. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final fourth-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty created by the delay. The markets are strictly limited to fourth-quarter performance, with no consideration given to earlier quarters, overtime periods, or overall game outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can reveal where the crowd disagrees with experts and potentially identify value opportunities, though past performance is not indicative of future results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by individual traders’ assessments of the game, potentially influenced by factors like team news, injuries, and weather conditions, all contributing to the collective prediction.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the fourth quarter of the Rutgers vs Maryland game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by sports data providers. The final spread will be compared to the contracts traded on Kalshi to determine payouts to contract holders. This process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries to either Rutgers or Maryland would likely cause price fluctuations. Major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by analyst predictions or breaking news stories, could also influence trading activity. Late-breaking weather forecasts impacting game conditions are another potential catalyst. Finally, significant betting action on sportsbooks could create arbitrage opportunities, leading traders on Kalshi to adjust their positions and move the price.