TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 1:32 PM EST
Kalshi
The match between Russia and Namibia will determine whether more than zero goals are scored within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
All markets resolve based on the total number of goals scored in the Russia vs Namibia professional Intl Friendlies soccer game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty kicks do not count toward the goal total. Any market requiring a specific threshold of goals (e.g., over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, etc.) will resolve to 'Yes' if the actual goals meet or exceed that threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' The outcomes are strictly determined by the full-time score as per standard match regulations, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league or its trademarks.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the event's potential. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds-makers, especially when complex factors are at play.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential total goal outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the event's outcome. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view, offering a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of various goal totals in the Russia-Namibia match.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total goals scored in the Russia vs. Namibia match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sporting body. Any potential disputes or clarifications will be addressed using publicly available information. The final price on Kalshi will reflect the actual total goals scored, determining which traders profited from their predictions. It is important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verified data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to the match. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Russia or Namibia would likely cause shifts in trader sentiment. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to significantly impact the style of play, could also play a role. Unexpected announcements about team formations or tactical approaches might also move the market. Finally, any significant public opinion shifts, perhaps reflected in polls or expert analyses, could influence how traders price the probability of different total goal outcomes.