TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 1:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event involves a football match between two national teams in an international friendly competition. The outcome depends on whether both teams manage to score during the regular playing time, which includes any added stoppage time but excludes any extra time or penalty shootouts. The focus is solely on the scoring activity within the standard match duration.
If Russia and Namibia both score a goal in the Russia vs Namibia Intl Friendlies match originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of individuals betting with their own capital. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the probability of both teams scoring, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before major events or when new information emerges, as traders incorporate their insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of both teams scoring in the Russia vs Namibia match. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, indicating a growing belief that both teams will score; conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether both Russia and Namibia score at least one goal during the match. Official match results, as reported by recognized sporting authorities, will be used to determine the final outcome. The market will then settle based on whether both teams scored or not, with contract holders receiving a payout according to the final price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Russia or Namibia would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match venue or kickoff time might also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price fluctuations as traders react to each other’s actions.