TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Rot-Weiss Essen and Leipzig in the DFB Pokal tournament. The focus is on determining whether either team achieves a decisive victory margin based on specific goal differences. Results are evaluated after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates four distinct outcome scenarios for the Rot-Weiss Essen vs Leipzig DFB Pokal match scheduled for October 27, 2026. All resolutions occur after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded. The first market resolves to Yes if Rot-Weiss Essen wins by more than 2.5 goals. The second market resolves to Yes if Rot-Weiss Essen wins by more than 1.5 goals. The third market resolves to Yes if Leipzig wins by more than 1.5 goals. The fourth market resolves to Yes if Leipzig wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each market operates independently, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks, logos, and brand names.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the spread in the Rot-Weiss Essen vs Leipzig match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price moves based on supply and demand; if more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease, allowing traders to adjust their positions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Rot-Weiss Essen vs Leipzig match will be the determining factor. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the governing sports authority, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 27, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could shift traders’ expectations. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also impact the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking information about weather conditions or stadium issues could introduce uncertainty and volatility, leading to price adjustments as traders react to the evolving situation.