TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of goals scored in an upcoming UEFA Nations League soccer match between Romania and Sweden. The outcome depends on whether the total goals exceed specific thresholds, providing insight into the expected offensive intensity of the game.
The event evaluates multiple markets based on the total number of goals scored in the Romania vs Sweden UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 5, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of goals (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5), resolving to 'Yes' if the actual number of goals exceeds the respective threshold within the regulation 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding extra time or penalty kicks. All markets share the same underlying condition but differ in the required goal count for resolution. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets is not officially affiliated with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to profit by balancing action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by informed traders, public sentiment, and any new information that emerges regarding team form, injuries, or other relevant factors influencing the match.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of goals scored in the Romania vs Sweden match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be sourced from official match data and used to determine which contract settles at 100. Any disputes regarding the official result will be addressed based on the data provided by the governing football authorities. The resolution process ensures a transparent and accurate determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to the match. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Romania or Sweden would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups or pre-match interviews with managers could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could signal a change in expectations and drive price fluctuations in this market.