TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:06 PM EST
Kalshi
A competitive soccer match between two teams will conclude with one team securing a victory in regular time, or the game ending evenly with no winner.
This event resolves based on the outcome of a professional Serie A Femminile soccer match between Roma and Lazio scheduled for October 3, 2026. The market evaluates the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not including extra time or penalties, with three potential resolutions: Roma win, Lazio win, or a tie. Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled beyond 48 hours from its original date, the market will resolve to a fair price. The platform expressly states no affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and a margin for profit, while this market allows traders to express their own informed opinions. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can influence the price on Kalshi, potentially creating discrepancies. These differences can be particularly noticeable as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Rome Derby. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes of the Rome Derby. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly evolving based on supply and demand, offering a real-time view of collective expectations for the match's result. The market's depth and liquidity influence how quickly prices respond to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Roma versus Lazio match, including any extra time or penalty shootouts if applicable. The final score and winning team will be sourced from established sports news outlets and official league standings. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could significantly impact the Rome Derby market. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Roma or Lazio would likely cause price fluctuations. Any unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising loss in a previous match, could also shift trader sentiment. News regarding tactical approaches or managerial decisions might also influence the market. Furthermore, even external factors like weather conditions on match day or significant media coverage could contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before Oct 3, 2026.