TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Roma and Cagliari, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each defining a specific winning margin threshold for either Roma or Cagliari in their Serie A match scheduled for October 27, 2026. All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the stated condition regarding the goal differential is met—Roma winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or Cagliari winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Each market operates independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective insight of prediction market traders. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly as new information becomes available, potentially diverging from or converging with sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Roma vs Cagliari match spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders to buy or sell at specific prices, or market orders to execute trades immediately at the best available price. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread for the Roma vs Cagliari match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported result of the match, as determined by the governing sports league. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly following the event’s completion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 28, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Roma or Cagliari could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in coaching staff could also move the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a shift in sentiment, causing the price to adjust rapidly.