TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 11:05 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both the prediction market and a sportsbook. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Norrie vs Arnaldi match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability estimate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and can shift rapidly with new information or changing sentiment. The current implied probability of a particular outcome is derived directly from the share price.
This market resolves around Nov 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Norrie vs Arnaldi match as declared by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual winner of the match. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Nov 9, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match analyses from tennis experts could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader tournament upsets, might also lead to shifts in the market. Furthermore, large trades by individual participants could temporarily move the price, especially given the current volume. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements.