TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the potential outcomes of a mixed martial arts bout between Roberto Soldic and Kalinn Williams, focusing specifically on how and when a fighter might win. The markets evaluate various scenarios including knockout victories in specific rounds or a decision-based conclusion, providing insight into anticipated fight dynamics and strategies.
The event encompasses multiple markets that resolve based on the specific round and method of victory in the Roberto Soldic vs. Kalinn Williams fight scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular fighter winning via knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), submission, or disqualification (DQ) within a designated round (Rounds 1, 2, or 3), with separate markets for each fighter and each round. A distinct market also covers outcomes where the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest across the full duration. Critically, technical decisions are explicitly treated as decisions for settlement purposes and do not count toward a round-specific win. All markets share the condition that they resolve positively only if the specified win condition is met; otherwise, they resolve negatively. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, using trademarks and branding for reference only.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information not fully captured by traditional bookmakers, such as nuanced analysis or inside knowledge. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders to find value in either market, depending on their assessment of the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Soldic vs. Williams fight. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adjust to new information and changing sentiment surrounding the fight, providing a real-time assessment of potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which fighter is declared the winner of the Soldic vs. Williams fight, according to the official result announced by the relevant governing body. Any potential challenges or disputes will be resolved based on official rulings and documentation. The platform will then determine the payout for winning contracts based on the final outcome of the fight.
Several signals could significantly move this market leading up to Oct 4, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might also prompt adjustments in this market. Furthermore, any updates on the fighters’ physical or mental condition, or analysis from MMA experts, could impact the perceived probabilities of each outcome. Shifts in public opinion, as reflected in social media or polls, could also contribute to price movements.