TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:13 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Timeo Trufelli and Thijs Boogaard in the Roanne, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Timeo Trufelli' if Timeo Trufelli advances against Thijs Boogaard. This market will resolve to 'Thijs Boogaard' if Thijs Boogaard advances against Timeo Trufelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Timeo Trufelli and Thijs Boogaard in the Roanne, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Timeo Trufelli' if Timeo Trufelli advances against Thijs Boogaard. This market will resolve to 'Thijs Boogaard' if Thijs Boogaard advances against Timeo Trufelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set initial odds based on player rankings and historical performance, incorporating a margin for profit. This market, however, allows the wisdom of the crowd to weigh in, potentially identifying undervalued or overvalued players based on more nuanced information or recent form. Discrepancies can arise from differing opinions on player motivation, strategic approaches, or even external factors impacting performance. It's important to compare both to gain a comprehensive view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each player’s probability of winning. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time forecast. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a player will win, the higher the share price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants and provides a continuously updated assessment of the likely outcome of the Roanne chess match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Roanne chess match, as declared by the tournament organizers. The player declared the winner by the official results will determine the outcome of this market. Any protests or disputes will be resolved according to the official tournament rules, and the final decision will be used for market settlement.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding the players’ recent performance in other tournaments, changes in their coaching staff, or reports of illness or injury could all shift the odds. Unexpected strategic announcements or changes in playing style could also impact market sentiment. Furthermore, analysis from chess experts and commentators, particularly if it highlights a perceived advantage for one player, could drive trading activity and move the market. Public opinion and social media buzz surrounding the match could also play a role.