TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:09 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Paul and Niels McDonald in the Roanne, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Paul' if Jakub Paul advances against Niels McDonald. This market will resolve to 'Niels McDonald' if Niels McDonald advances against Jakub Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Paul and Niels McDonald in the Roanne, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Paul' if Jakub Paul advances against Niels McDonald. This market will resolve to 'Niels McDonald' if Niels McDonald advances against Jakub Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to profit from margins, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. However, it's important to remember that both represent different forms of forecasting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants trading on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Jakub Paul vs Niels McDonald match in Roanne, France. The platform will verify the result against official sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements to stay informed about the event's progress and the eventual resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated rankings could shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or player form could also cause significant price movements. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could temporarily impact the price, though the market generally self-corrects as more information becomes available and more traders participate.