TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 11:15 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Nagel and Loann Massard in the Roanne, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Loann Massard. This market will resolve to 'Loann Massard' if Loann Massard advances against Arthur Nagel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Nagel and Loann Massard in the Roanne, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Loann Massard. This market will resolve to 'Loann Massard' if Loann Massard advances against Arthur Nagel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective opinion of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Roanne match between Arthur Nagel and Loann Massard. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding the players' form, injuries, or changes in their coaching strategies could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players might also impact market sentiment. Publicly available analysis from sports experts and commentators could also sway traders’ opinions. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself can create short-term price movements, especially with the current volume of $22,607.