TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Red Wings vs. Penguins
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 7:00PM ET: If the Red Wings win, the market will resolve to "Red Wings". If the Penguins win, the market will resolve to "Penguins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi focuses on spread-based outcomes (margin of victory thresholds), while Polymarket offers both moneyline and total goals markets. The platforms measure different dimensions of the same game, creating distinct settlement pathways.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on margin of victory (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal spreads). On Polymarket, you can bet on total combined goals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds) or moneyline (Red Wings vs. Penguins winner). These are independent outcomes — a Red Wings win by 1 goal resolves YES on Polymarket moneyline but NO on Kalshi spread markets, and does not directly resolve any Polymarket total goals market.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi settles exclusively on margin-of-victory thresholds. All four markets resolve YES only if one team wins by 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals. Example: 'If Detroit wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Pittsburgh wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' No moneyline or total goals markets are offered.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three market types — moneyline (Red Wings vs. Penguins winner), spread (Penguins -1.5 and Red Wings -1.5), and total goals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). Example moneyline: 'If the Red Wings win, the market will resolve to Red Wings.' Example total: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Red Wings and Penguins combine to score 5 or more goals.' Shootout goals are added to the winning team's total for resolution.
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