Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) for the Bragantino vs. Botafogo game on March 21, 2026, within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, using the same primary source (CBF/governing body official statistics).
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) or the governing body/event organizers for the Brasileiro Serie A match.
Core resolution logic:
Polymarket Market 1 (Bragantino win) resolves YES if and only if Red Bull Bragantino wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise NO.
Polymarket Market 2 (Draw) resolves YES if and only if the match ends in a draw within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise NO.
Polymarket Market 3 (Botafogo win) resolves YES if and only if Botafogo FR wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise NO.
Kalshi Markets 1-3 resolve YES based on the same three mutually exclusive outcomes: Botafogo win, Tie (draw), or Bragantino win, each within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Exactly one outcome (Bragantino win, draw, or Botafogo win) will occur; exactly one market per platform will resolve YES.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until completion.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket draw market resolves YES (per its cancellation clause); Polymarket win markets resolve NO; Kalshi markets do not explicitly address cancellation but default to the scheduled match outcome logic.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: Both platforms keep markets open until the match is completed. Resolution is delayed but the underlying logic remains unchanged.
Match Cancellation Without Make-up: Polymarket's draw market resolves YES per its explicit cancellation clause; Polymarket's win markets resolve NO. Kalshi does not explicitly address this scenario, creating a minor practical gap, though both platforms ultimately defer to the match outcome if played.
Resolution Source Timing: Polymarket specifies that if CBF/governing body does not publish final statistics within 2 hours after match conclusion, credible reporting consensus may be used. Kalshi does not specify this fallback, but both default to official sources as primary.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of the final match result by CBF or the governing body, or within 2 hours after match conclusion via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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