TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Real Valladolid CF vs. Cádiz CF
Volume:
$121,726
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming La Liga 2 game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Real Valladolid CF and Cádiz CF.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Valladolid win, draw, Cádiz win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three independent YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if the match produces any outcome. This creates a fundamental logical contradiction in how the same event group settles across platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent across platforms. On Polymarket, betting all three outcomes is impossible (only one wins). On Kalshi, all three markets can resolve YES at once, making them redundant rather than mutually exclusive. Arbitrage or hedging strategies will fail if you treat them as interchangeable.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Valladolid win, draw, or Cádiz win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. The draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up. Primary source is official LaLiga statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus thereafter. Quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No... If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three independent markets that each resolve YES if their specific outcome occurs (Valladolid wins, Cádiz wins, or Tie occurs), meaning all three can resolve YES simultaneously depending on the match result. There is no cancellation clause, no source specification, and no time window for resolution. Quote: 'If Valladolid wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Cadiz wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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