TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Real Sociedad wins by more than 2.5 goals
- Kalshi
Real Sociedad wins by more than 2.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 8, 2026
Time left: 05d:22h:52m
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This event tracks the outcome of a professional La Liga soccer match between Real Sociedad and Vallecano, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent within the standard match timeframe. Different thresholds define various possible outcomes.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Real Sociedad vs Vallecano professional La Liga soccer match scheduled for Nov 8, 2026, played within 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Four distinct outcomes are defined by specific goal-margin thresholds: Real Sociedad winning by more than 2.5 goals, Real Sociedad winning by more than 1.5 goals, Vallecano winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Vallecano winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each primary rule corresponds to one of these victory-margin conditions, with the market resolving to 'Yes' for the rule that matches the actual result. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, noting that all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that the crowd perceives a different likelihood of a particular outcome than professional oddsmakers. It's important to note that both represent probabilities, but are formed through different mechanisms and with varying levels of information aggregation.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Real Sociedad vs Vallecano match, as determined by official match statistics. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It's important to monitor news sources and official match results leading up to and following the game to understand how the outcome is being determined.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Nov 8, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Real Sociedad or Vallecano would likely impact the spread and, therefore, the market prices. Unexpected changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large-volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price movements in this market.