TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:23 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess whether Real Sociedad or Levante achieves a victory by a margin exceeding specific goal differences in the same match, considering only regular time scores.
Markets resolve based on the goal differential if Real Sociedad or Levante wins the match by more than a specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 goals) after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for Real Sociedad requires they win by more than the stated margin; for Levante, they must likewise win by more than the margin indicated.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance betting action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to trade based on their own insights, leading to odds that can diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than traditional sportsbooks, especially regarding late-breaking news or changes in team conditions. This can result in more accurate probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Real Sociedad vs Levante spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity determine the liquidity and efficiency of price discovery. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Real Sociedad vs Levante match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the governing body of the league. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly, ensuring a transparent and reliable resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Real Sociedad or Levante would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or coaching changes could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate new information or a change in sentiment, potentially causing a rapid price adjustment in this market.