TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 11:31 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Granada will win the Real Sociedad B vs Granada professional La Liga 2 soccer game. Currently, Kalshi gives Granada a 99.0% probability of winning, while Real Sociedad B is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official result of the Real Sociedad B vs Granada game. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for October 4, 2026, as that date represents the end of the betting period and will determine the final resolution of this market.
The event resolves based on the result of the Real Sociedad B vs Granada La Liga 2 soccer match scheduled for October 4, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Real Sociedad B wins, its market resolves to Yes. If Granada wins, its market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from sportsbook odds influenced by house biases and differing risk assessments. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can provide insights into where the crowd believes value lies compared to traditional betting outlets. Keep in mind that both represent probabilities, but are formed through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence the price discovery process, allowing for a dynamic and responsive assessment of the event's potential results. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Real Sociedad B vs Granada match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on this official result. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It's important to monitor official sources for the confirmed result to understand the market's final settlement.
Several signals could move this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or tactical adjustments announced by either Real Sociedad B or Granada could significantly impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also influence the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment, reflected in media coverage or social media discussions, can drive trading volume and price movements. Major upsets in related matches or broader sporting events could also indirectly affect this market as traders reassess their predictions.