TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 12:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event determines the outcome based on the goal differential between Reading and Bradford in their scheduled EFL League One soccer match on October 3, 2026. Four distinct criteria define a 'Yes' resolution: Reading must win by more than 2.5 goals, Reading must win by more than 1.5 goals, Bradford must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Bradford must win by more than 2.5 goals—all evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Only the net goal difference within these thresholds matters for resolution; the markets are independent and resolve based solely on the final score from regular time. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks typically establish odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular spread is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price here will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more traders participate, the price tends to become more efficient, reflecting a broader range of opinions and information about the Reading vs Bradford match.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread of the Reading vs Bradford match, as officially reported by a recognized sports data provider, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the final score differential between the two teams, and contracts corresponding to the correct spread will pay out. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi following the completion of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 3, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Reading or Bradford squads would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team selection or changes in coaching staff could also shift the market. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and lead to price fluctuations.