TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg
Volume:
$3,070,448
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Bundesliga soccer match between RB Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg scheduled for February 15, 2026. Three related markets track the outcome: Leipzig win, Wolfsburg win, and draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market has a unique cancellation clause (resolves YES if game is canceled with no make-up) that contradicts its win markets (resolve NO on cancellation) and differs from Kalshi's unspecified cancellation handling.Hero Tip:
Monitor official Bundesliga sources for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket traders holding the draw market will receive YES payoff while win market holders receive NO, creating a synthetic long position on draw outcomes. Kalshi's cancellation protocol is ambiguous and should be clarified before market expiration.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate markets: Leipzig Win (YES if Leipzig wins, NO if canceled), Wolfsburg Win (YES if Wolfsburg wins, NO if canceled), and Draw (YES if draw or if canceled with no make-up, NO otherwise). Key Quote: Draw market states 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' while win markets state 'this market will resolve No'.
- Kalshi: Three outcomes (Wolfsburg win, Leipzig win, Draw) all resolve to YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation protocol not explicitly defined. Key Quote: 'after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties)'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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