TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 9:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of an Argentine Nacional B soccer match between Rafaela and Quilmes. Bettors can speculate on whether Rafaela, Quilmes, or a tied result will occur after the full 90 minutes plus any stoppage time on the scheduled date. The resolution depends purely on the game's result within regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Rafaela vs Quilmes professional Argentine Nacional B soccer game scheduled for October 16, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins within this timeframe. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution, which strictly considers the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and ensure profitability, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both the prediction market and a sportsbook. It’s important to note that prediction markets generally incorporate more information as the event approaches, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities than initial sportsbook offerings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at various price points, indicates the liquidity and potential price impact of larger trades. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently aggregates information and provides a probabilistic forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Rafaela vs Quilmes match, as reported by a reputable sports news source. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event outcome. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching decisions could also play a role. Furthermore, significant bets placed by informed traders could create momentum and drive price changes. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments surrounding the Rafaela vs Quilmes match is crucial for understanding potential market movements.