TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Rafaela vs Parana professional Argentine Nacional B soccer game will end in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, Kalshi gives “Tie is the result” an 81.0% probability, while “Rafaela wins” is at 12.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game as reported by the official source. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for November 2, 2026, as that date represents the end of the betting period and will determine the final result.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Rafaela vs Parana professional Argentine Nacional B soccer match scheduled for November 2, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the match within regular time, while a 'Tie' outcome resolves to Yes if both teams finish level after the same period. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect resolution. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or focus on public perception, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge from those seen here, it could indicate a disagreement about the true probability of an outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets become more accurate as the event approaches and more information becomes available, potentially outperforming traditional betting venues in their predictive power.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Rafaela vs Parana match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or weather conditions impacting the match could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or coaching changes could also cause price fluctuations. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, might also play a role, though this market is driven by actual trading activity. Significant shifts in volume, particularly close to the event date, could also indicate new information or changing expectations.