TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Cruz Azul will win their professional Liga MX soccer game against Queretaro. Currently, Kalshi gives Cruz Azul a 95.0% probability of winning, with a 5.0% probability of a tie. The market will resolve based on the result of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official game outcome, according to Kalshi. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for October 25, 2026, as the final score will determine the market’s resolution on the estimated resolution date of October 26, 2026.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Queretaro vs Cruz Azul professional Liga MX soccer match scheduled for October 25, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs for the respective team market if that team wins the match within regular time. The 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends in a draw after the same period. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect resolution, as outcomes are determined exclusively by the result at the end of regulation time including stoppage minutes. If the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following platform procedures. The operator disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, aiming to profit regardless of the outcome. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, theoretically representing the true probabilities as perceived by the crowd. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, prediction markets can dynamically adjust as new information emerges and trader sentiment shifts. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a decentralized mechanism, allowing traders to directly influence the odds based on their own research and insights. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Queretaro vs Cruz Azul match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances at that time. The platform will verify the outcome against established sources to ensure accuracy and transparency in the settlement process. The final score will determine the winning contract.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Queretaro or Cruz Azul would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even significant tactical adjustments announced by either coach, could also move the market. Furthermore, large-volume trades from informed participants could create short-term price fluctuations, reflecting their assessment of the evolving situation.