TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 11:49 AM EST
Polymarket
This event group concerns a single Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) game between the Qingdao Eagles and the Tianjin Pioneers. The markets resolve to which team wins the game, with a 50-50 split if the game is canceled without a reschedule and continued operation if the game is postponed.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 27 at 7:35AM ET: If the Qingdao Eagles win, the market will resolve to "Qingdao Eagles". If the Tianjin Pioneers win, the market will resolve to "Tianjin Pioneers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 27 at 7:35AM ET: If the Qingdao Eagles win, the market will resolve to "Qingdao Eagles". If the Tianjin Pioneers win, the market will resolve to "Tianjin Pioneers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict for this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to profit, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion differs from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team statistics, this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time sentiment, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches. The volume of $20,107 suggests active trading and evolving expectations.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Predict can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information regarding the Qingdao vs. Tianjin game. Trading volume, currently at $20,107, can also influence price discovery; lower volume may lead to greater price swings. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and order execution on each platform can contribute to these differences. One platform might attract more sophisticated traders, while the other may have a broader, less informed audience, resulting in divergent probabilities.